Debris from Japan's tsunami to hit West Coast in year or so

SEATTLE - John Anderson has discovered just about everythingduring the 30 years he's combed Washington state's beaches - glassfishing floats, hockey gloves, bottled messages, even hundreds ofmismatched pairs of Nike sneakers that washed up barnacled butotherwise unworn.

The biggest haul may come in one to three years when, scientistssay, wind and ocean currents eventually will push some of themassive debris from Japan's tsunami and earthquake onto the shoresof the U.S. West Coast.

"I'm fascinated to see what actually makes it over here, comparedto what might sink or biodegrade out there," said Anderson, 57, aplumber and avid beachcomber who lives in the coastal town of Forks,Wash.

The floating debris will likely be carried by currents off ofJapan toward Washington, Oregon and California before turning towardHawaii and back again toward Asia, circulating in what is known asthe North Pacific gyre, said Curt Ebbesmeyer, a Seattleoceanographer who has spent decades tracking flotsam.

Ebbesmeyer, who has traced Nike sneakers, plastic bath toys andhockey gloves accidentally spilled from Asia cargo ships, is nowtracking the massive debris field moving across the Pacific Oceanfrom Japan. He relies heavily on a network of thousands ofbeachcombers such as Anderson to report the location and details oftheir finds.

"If you put a major city through a trash grinder and sprinkle iton the water, that's what you're dealing with," he said.

As to whether any of the debris might be radioactive from thedevastation at Japanese nuclear power plants, James Hevezi, chair ofthe American College of Radiology Commission on Medical Physics,said there could be.

"But it would be very low risk," Hevezi said. "The amount thatwould be on the stuff by the time it reached the West Coast would beminimal."

Only a small portion of that debris will wash ashore, and howfast it gets there and where it lands depends on buoyancy, materialand other factors. Fishing vessels or items that poke out of thewater and are more likely influenced by wind may show up in a year,while items like lumber pieces, survey stakes and household itemsmay take two to three years, he said.

If the items aren't blown ashore by winds or get caught up inanother oceanic gyre, they'll continue to drift in the North Pacificloop and complete the circle in about six years, Ebbesmeyer said.

"The material that is actually blown in will be a fraction" ofthe tsunami debris, said Curt Peterson, a coastal oceanographer andprofessor in the geology department at Portland State University inOregon. "Some will break up in transit. A lot of it will miss ourcoast. Some will split up and head up to Gulf of Alaska and (BritishColumbia)."

"All this debris will find a way to reach the West Coast or stopin the Great Pacific Garbage Patch," a swirling mass of concentratedmarine litter in the Pacific Ocean, said Luca Centurioni, aresearcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

"The dispersion is pretty large, so it's not like a straight shotfrom Tokyo to San Francisco," said Centurioni, the principalinvestigator for the Global Drifter Program funded by NOAA. Theprogram deploys about 900 satellite-tracked drifting buoys each yearthroughout the world to collect sea surface temperature and otherdata.

Much of the debris will be plastic, which doesn't completelybreak down. That raises concerns about marine pollution and thepotential harm to marine life. But the amount of tsunami debris,while massive, still pales in comparison to the litter that isdumped into oceans on a regular basis, Ebbesmeyer said.

Ebbesmeyer and retired NOAA researcher Jim Ingraham are using acomputer program to plot the path of debris from the March 11tsunami to add to growing knowledge about ocean currents. Themodeling relies on weather data collected by the U.S. Navy, and theresearchers are waiting for the monthly release of that data to maketheir first projections.

Ingraham developed the program to figure out the effects of oceancurrents on salmon migration, but the two also have been using it toplot the path of a multitude of floating junk.

Ebbesmeyer first became interested in flotsam when he heardreports of beachcombers finding hundreds of water-soaked shoes inWashington, Oregon and Alaska. An Asia cargo ship bound for the U.S.in 1990 had spilled thousands of Nike shoes into the middle of theNorth Pacific Ocean. He was able to trace serial numbers on shoes tothe cargo ship, giving him the points where they began drifting inthe ocean and where they landed.

The oceanographer also has tracked plastic bath toys - frogs,turtle, ducks and beavers - that fell overboard a cargo ship in 1992in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and were later found in Sitka,Alaska.

Anderson says he constantly scans the beaches watching forsomething that catches his eye. He's found about 20 bottledmessages, mostly from schoolchildren, and the several hundred Nikesneakers, which he cleaned up by soaking in water and eventuallygave away, sold or swapped.

"In two years, there's going to be stuff coming in (from Japan),and probably lots of it," he said. "Some of it is bound to come in."

Debris from Japan's tsunami to hit West Coast in year or so

SEATTLE - John Anderson has discovered just about everythingduring the 30 years he's combed Washington state's beaches - glassfishing floats, hockey gloves, bottled messages, even hundreds ofmismatched pairs of Nike sneakers that washed up barnacled butotherwise unworn.

The biggest haul may come in one to three years when, scientistssay, wind and ocean currents eventually will push some of themassive debris from Japan's tsunami and earthquake onto the shoresof the U.S. West Coast.

"I'm fascinated to see what actually makes it over here, comparedto what might sink or biodegrade out there," said Anderson, 57, aplumber and avid beachcomber who lives in the coastal town of Forks,Wash.

The floating debris will likely be carried by currents off ofJapan toward Washington, Oregon and California before turning towardHawaii and back again toward Asia, circulating in what is known asthe North Pacific gyre, said Curt Ebbesmeyer, a Seattleoceanographer who has spent decades tracking flotsam.

Ebbesmeyer, who has traced Nike sneakers, plastic bath toys andhockey gloves accidentally spilled from Asia cargo ships, is nowtracking the massive debris field moving across the Pacific Oceanfrom Japan. He relies heavily on a network of thousands ofbeachcombers such as Anderson to report the location and details oftheir finds.

"If you put a major city through a trash grinder and sprinkle iton the water, that's what you're dealing with," he said.

As to whether any of the debris might be radioactive from thedevastation at Japanese nuclear power plants, James Hevezi, chair ofthe American College of Radiology Commission on Medical Physics,said there could be.

"But it would be very low risk," Hevezi said. "The amount thatwould be on the stuff by the time it reached the West Coast would beminimal."

Only a small portion of that debris will wash ashore, and howfast it gets there and where it lands depends on buoyancy, materialand other factors. Fishing vessels or items that poke out of thewater and are more likely influenced by wind may show up in a year,while items like lumber pieces, survey stakes and household itemsmay take two to three years, he said.

If the items aren't blown ashore by winds or get caught up inanother oceanic gyre, they'll continue to drift in the North Pacificloop and complete the circle in about six years, Ebbesmeyer said.

"The material that is actually blown in will be a fraction" ofthe tsunami debris, said Curt Peterson, a coastal oceanographer andprofessor in the geology department at Portland State University inOregon. "Some will break up in transit. A lot of it will miss ourcoast. Some will split up and head up to Gulf of Alaska and (BritishColumbia)."

"All this debris will find a way to reach the West Coast or stopin the Great Pacific Garbage Patch," a swirling mass of concentratedmarine litter in the Pacific Ocean, said Luca Centurioni, aresearcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

"The dispersion is pretty large, so it's not like a straight shotfrom Tokyo to San Francisco," said Centurioni, the principalinvestigator for the Global Drifter Program funded by NOAA. Theprogram deploys about 900 satellite-tracked drifting buoys each yearthroughout the world to collect sea surface temperature and otherdata.

Much of the debris will be plastic, which doesn't completelybreak down. That raises concerns about marine pollution and thepotential harm to marine life. But the amount of tsunami debris,while massive, still pales in comparison to the litter that isdumped into oceans on a regular basis, Ebbesmeyer said.

Ebbesmeyer and retired NOAA researcher Jim Ingraham are using acomputer program to plot the path of debris from the March 11tsunami to add to growing knowledge about ocean currents. Themodeling relies on weather data collected by the U.S. Navy, and theresearchers are waiting for the monthly release of that data to maketheir first projections.

Ingraham developed the program to figure out the effects of oceancurrents on salmon migration, but the two also have been using it toplot the path of a multitude of floating junk.

Ebbesmeyer first became interested in flotsam when he heardreports of beachcombers finding hundreds of water-soaked shoes inWashington, Oregon and Alaska. An Asia cargo ship bound for the U.S.in 1990 had spilled thousands of Nike shoes into the middle of theNorth Pacific Ocean. He was able to trace serial numbers on shoes tothe cargo ship, giving him the points where they began drifting inthe ocean and where they landed.

The oceanographer also has tracked plastic bath toys - frogs,turtle, ducks and beavers - that fell overboard a cargo ship in 1992in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and were later found in Sitka,Alaska.

Anderson says he constantly scans the beaches watching forsomething that catches his eye. He's found about 20 bottledmessages, mostly from schoolchildren, and the several hundred Nikesneakers, which he cleaned up by soaking in water and eventuallygave away, sold or swapped.

"In two years, there's going to be stuff coming in (from Japan),and probably lots of it," he said. "Some of it is bound to come in."